Rumours of the Death of Google Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Last night's talk at MMU by James Hanson of MediaVest raised a number of interesting questions. Using IBM and Yahoo as examples of once all-powerful corporations who now have a vastly reduced market share, he presented a list of possible scenarios that might bring about the demise of the world's favourite search engine.

Political Opposition kills Google

China has already shut Google out but this will not kill them. Although China is widely regarded as next world superpower and Google has given up on them, they have not really dented the Google Empire.

EU lawsuits over content hosting in Italy and France's ongoing struggle with Google Books show that there is not much political love from our continent either. However, this is still a long way from effectively killing Google. Services may be withdrawn but this will not affect the userbase.

Social Media kills Google

Twitter has real time search; Facebook has several million users. However, in my opinion both are limited in scope and Twitter is limited by the quality of its content. While they both have an enormous user-base, you only have to look at Friends Reunited, Friendster and Myspace to see how fickle the social media scene is. I would be surprised if Twitter and Facebook are notable platforms in 2 years time.

Large Technology Firms kill Google

Microsoft is still a massive power and a company with diverse interests but they seen to have come to a grudging acceptance of Google. This might change with the launch of Chrome OS although Chrome OS has more in common with Linux than Windows so Microsoft may not feel that it is a true challenger.

Apple now occupies the helm of mobile internet devices and blocking Google's access to the iPhone could affect Google eventually. I consider this unlikely because although the companies have an uneasy relationship, Apple does not seem so blinkered as to shut off such an integral part of the Internet.

Google kills Google

Google currently has over 200 products online and has declared that they will buy at least one company per month throughout 2010. This suggests that they could spread themselves too thin. However, Google do not have a history of flogging dead horses. If a product is failing, they are unsentimental about resigning it, for example Google Answers.

Google could alternatively make a massive misstep and launch a product that people hate. Buzz is an example of such a product. However, Google was quick to react and resolve the privacy issues. Also at this stage, Google do not seem out of touch with the products they are launching; compare any recent Google offering with Microsoft Songsmith.

There is always the possibility that a new killer app will arrive and will cut out the need for Google Search and so undercut Google's largest revenue stream. However, with other offerings such as Google Apps, the corporation would still be able to operate without search. Additionally, Google would surely spot any killer search app and buy the company at an early stage.

Conclusions

After the presentation, Hanson took questions from the audience and revealed that he personally expected Google to be in an even stronger position in 10 years time. Sadly, although the talk presented a controversial title it was unable to provide any controversial opinions. I look forward to re-reading it with 2020 vision.